From the jaws of defeat, chaos

That was fun.

That could’ve been bad. For a while, it was bad. It felt like watching the same offense we’ve seen each of the last three seasons, in a bad way. And then it felt familiar—the other way.

Leading off the game, J.P got a bunt down, the throw went wide and he scampered on to second. The next time the Mariners would have a runner in scoring position was the tenth inning, when they got one for free.

And then they got a lot more—and a 4-3 win over the Red Sox.

Tonight could and should be a lesson in not overreacting to the emotional swings commonplace early in any season. On the other hand, I am not an entirely rational person—nor are most of you, judging from Twitter.

That’s sports. That’s the Mariners.

It would be smart to not read too much into this outcome, regardless of how it ended up playing out. But it feels as though these opening series can be tone-setters.

Sure, this group of guys has been together now every single day for more than a month—and most of them longer than that—but you don’t know how it all functions together until you see how it all functions together. If we are quick to cast aspersions on what a brutal strikeout, a bad throw, clutch knock or perfect slide mean in the longterm, imagine that’s your coworker. Imagine that’s your new coworker.

One of the best parts of a walk-off dub is watching the celebration back on the replay.

“Oh, look at Kirby going nuts!”

“Raley damn near tackles him!”

“Emerson’s bouncing in there!”

“JULIOOOOOOOOOOO!”

You start to see how it all fits together. After an offseason of this guy’s second-half stats, that guy’s minor league numbers and some other guy’s salary, it’s just a bunch of dudes out behind first base going apeshit.

It goes back to the 10th-inning rally, too.

Luke Raley’s hanging on for dear life in brutal lefty-lefty matchup and backhands a parachute-job into left that scores Ty France from second. Luís Urías was robbed on a ball he scalded but the other half of the “If they are both as bad as they’ve been at multiple points in their career we are so boned” duo, Josh Rojas delivered a timely single. And then, chaos.

When things are going bad, it’s the Mariners who have a ball dribble under an outfielder’s glove. Things were going bad, but not here.

Raley scampers to third with his speed, Rojas to second by keeping his eyes on the play. For a second, I was horrified the latter may have come off the bag for a moment—but no. Not at all.

When the Red Sox took a 3-1 lead in the top half of the inning, it felt over. The narrative machine was revving its engine.

But here the Mariners were, down one with runners on second and third and exactly the guy they want up in that spot.

J.P. Crawford’s heart rate has gotta range from like 35 BPM when he’s chilling with his two huskies to 55 BPM in moments like this. So it was unfamiliar to see him quickly behind 0-2 and downright bizarre to see him, only needing to put a ball in play not right at someone, did just that. Still, it wasn’t a K, which was in the back of everyone’s mind.

It was a soft grounder right at the drawn-in second baseman. Rick Rizzs, the world’s foremost contact play hater, probably had his heart sputter. The throw was good, but not great—and it would’ve taken perfect to get Raley at home.

In the words of a long bygone Mariner, that’s what speed do.

Raley, in the 10th, is the perfect example of how important it is to consider a player’s complete skill-set. Often times, when folks are evaluating guys who primarily play non-premium positions, the focus is almost exclusively on their offensive profile.

The whole package matters, and here—for a team that annually needs every single notch in the win column—it was a big part of the difference in the game. Average speed gets thrown out there, and two outs with the tying run on third for Julio looks a hell of a lot different than one out, tie ballgame and the winning run 90 feet away.

I don’t know why they threw Julio a 3-1 strike with a base open. I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t intend to, and instead a slider off the plate away was very much on it.

A lot can happen as a misplaced pitch flutters towards the plate. I swear, sitting on my couch, I’ve clenched up and pulled a calf in such a situation. So it feels a little foolish to fault Julio too much for the times he swings for CenturyLink in a split-second decision like that, but here he didn’t.

He knew what he needed, a ball to the outfield, and he got it. He stayed back, he stayed on it and that’s your ballgame.

If you’re the type, as I am, to ascribe a little more meaning to the first series of a season, it’d be hard to script up a better win than this.

After the game, Julio was asked if he was surprised that was the first walk-off hit of his professional career. He, like me, was not. He knows he’s had these opportunities before. He knows, as well as anyone, he could’ve been better in them to this point in his young career.

May recency bias be a blessing for our young king.

Third game of the season and here in 2024, Julio knows he can be clutch. He knows he can be patient and play within himself.

That’s quite a doozy of a “Hrm, that could be something going forward.”

All these words, more than I meant to write tonight, overlook Logan Gilbert’s dominance. And that comes with a repertoire that continues to evolve. That splitter—watch out.

There is your Mariners #3 starter. If the M’s are healthy and lined up just-so, that’s the worst starting pitcher they run out there in a short playoff series. At’ll play.

They, of course, need to get there first. That’s before we talk about the dream of getting there and lining a rotation up.

But tonight, in the span of about 30 minutes, the Mariners did a lot to underscore this group could have the right combination—or at least a lot of it—to get where they want to go.

After the game, Scott Servais said they’re not playing well and still winning games, which is a good sign. That’s an optimistic way of looking at things, but who am I to fault good, old-fashioned optimism?

Here’s to the Mariners playing their best ball of 2024 tomorrow—and never seeing .500 again until Opening Day of 2025.

Go M’s.