It has to work once

Right?

Today is my 21st Opening Day at the ballpark. I just counted them up and, yeah, whew. Kind of bummed I didn’t realize last year was my 20th. That’s a fun milestone, mostly.

I say “today” like I’m not writing this part on my couch at 10pm last night. Field of Dreams is on like it always is for Opening Day Eve. They just picked up Archie Graham somewhere between Chisholm, Minnesota and Dyersville, Iowa. Familiar country for me.

I can’t confidently say the film was on before all my previous 20 but it probably was for most of ‘em. It’s fun to treat Opening Day like a holiday, to have traditions, even one. They start to click off pretty fast, the more Opening Days you have—certain eras have things, people and traits that others don’t.

So it’s nice to have something that mostly ties them all together.

While I think of all those Opening Days, random moments and memories interspersed, I’ve been thinking a lot about how many of these Mariners teams played on Opening Day.

I don’t mean this era—because even though this year’s roster is comically similar to last year’s, every roster has its own quirks and personality—but more-so this level of team.

For as moribund as this franchise is thought to be—and it is moribund if ever anything were moribund (what a word!)—they sure run out a lot of teams expected to be in about the top third of the American League.

They have a good shot at the playoffs. You could say they could play with anyone in the American League. They might miss the playoffs, too. That’s pretty common. But—

It’s a mix of some young and fresh talent with elder vets who have been around the block. They have a certified superstar, as they oddly often do. You can see a path—and not even that crazy of one—to something special.

I did it when it was Brad Miller and you can do it with Bryan Woo: go up and down the FanGraphs Depth Chart projections and find the extra wins that’d take them from good to great. Okay with 2014 it was taking them from mediocre to solid—so a little different and better in 2025.

These are projections that already have them as one of the better teams in the American League and the slight favorites for the division.

Only 4.1 combined fWAR for Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo? Ehhhh. Not gonna bank on 2023 Matt Brash but 0.2 fWAR this year? I’ll take the over. Just 2.5 fWAR for Victor Robles? He cleared that last year in 91 games.

There’s more you can do and I invite you to do it but my point’s simple: the Mariners yet again come into a baseball season with a solidly competitive roster with legitimate upside.

It has to work once. You keep doing this, keep being right there—it has to work once, right?

I may regret including this and it’s is two days in a row with a bizarre rando reference but, eek, here’s something a little Sean McDermott-esque…

When the Provisional Irish Republican Army was trying to blow up British PM Margaret Thatcher, they had this line in a public statement after a failed attempt:

Today we were unlucky, but remember we have only to be lucky once, you will have to be lucky always.

As the thesis of another Opening Day blog post swirled in my head, that quote was there, too. Relevant? I don’t know. Appropriate? Probably not.

Still—the Mariners only have to be lucky once, one year, to do something this organization has never done.

Would we like them to be a consistent winner? To contend for World Series titles year after year? Yes.

But it has to start with this working one time.

What does it “working” look like? What’s success for the 2025 Mariners?

Who can say.

A fair place to start: winning the American League West for the first time in 24 years. Is that enough? Regardless of Postseason outcome? Boy I think most folks would take it but winning the West with the #3 seed only to get bumped in the Wild Card round a la last year’s Astros would be tough.

And if they’re only a Wild Card team? That’s surely not enough.

Let’s play for a pennant. Let’s make the American League Championship Series. There was a time when the Seattle Mariners—the Mariners!—went to it in back-to-back years. Let’s return to the upper echelon of the sport.

The core is built—and good

Jerry Dipoto is a big fan of the concept of a “crest.” It’s easy to make fun of, particularly when used in describing a distant horizon for a baseball club that hasn’t won its division in a quarter-century.

The idea is solid, though. Bear with me.

I’ve talked with him before on this, preceding even the “stepback” of the 2018-2019 offseason and it’s relatively simple: a lot of great teams have a core group of players around the same age who reach their prime together. Think Astros, Cubs, Braves, the even-year Giants and so on.

There is so much that goes into crafting a good Major League roster—some the M’s are good at, others not so much—but timing is an oft-overlooked factor.

For the 2025 Mariners, the timing is good. They have some potentially-cooked vets, yes—but those aren’t the guys they’re looking for big things from.

We talked about it last week: the Mariners Player Development group, combined with their international and amateur scouting, has put the organization in an incredible spot. Looked at another way, and borrowing from…sheesh, 2023, the franchise has already done the hardest part of what they’re trying to do.

They have a bunch of talented young players either entering or in their prime. Arguably, it’s all their best players.

A note of appreciation for Mariners Player Development

They’ve done the things smart elite organizations do. Can they get results those organizations get though? We’ll see.

Rooting for this team feels…weird

Let’s say, as a thought exercise, it works. It all works. They win the division. They make the ALCS. It’s the most successful season since 2001 and marks the arrival of these Seattle Mariners as a threat for at least the next half-decade.

What do John Stanton and the rest of this ownership group…learn from that?

Does being right there, on the cusp of losing the label of the only MLB team to never make a World Series push them to finally gun it? Or do they look at likely their most profitable year ever and think…hey, this is fine. This is enough.

Do they feel rewarded, view it as confirmation that their late-stage capitalism form of running a baseball team is the right one?

Maybe.

I’m going to save a more detailed post on financials for another day but it’s worth a quick note.

The Mariners, yet again in the heart of a contention window, will run a bottom-half Opening Day payroll. They check-in at #16.

The last time a team with a payroll ranking as low as these 2025 Mariners won a World Series, it was Jack McKeon’s 2003 Florida Marlins.

It’s almost impossible to do what the Mariners are trying to do. If you can even say they’re trying to do it.

Recent efforts have improved fan sentiment but most rooting for this club do, if not begrudgingly, at least with mixed emotions and a level of spite.

It’s a weird place to be, to know with certainty this organization didn’t do all they could do to put this roster in the best position possible to achieve the ultimate goal.

This is one of the golden eras of Mariners Baseball—and Opening Day isn’t sold out. Says a lot.

You gotta love these guys

The Cal Raleigh contract extension was a near-idyllic precursor to the season. And I love all the Cal-centric media that’s come as a result.

Even something as simple as his statement in the press release just hit so perfect:

“This place has always felt like home since I arrived here in Seattle. They took me in from day one with kindness and respect and it is one of the top places to play in professional sports,” Cal Raleigh said. “I wanted to stay here because of the connection with the people of the Pacific Northwest and the Seattle Mariners, but I know it doesn’t always work out the way you want it to. I feel blessed that the Mariners gave me this opportunity and I can’t think of a better place in MLB to call home. We have a great nucleus of players here and aren’t far off from bringing the World Series to Seattle…”

They want what we want. They feel what we feel. They deal with all the bullshit we do and probably ten times more.

We’re all in this together.

That’s a big part of why I was always a softy on Scott Servais, that he was not only forced to deal with a lot of the limitations the organization put in place—but also explain them away.

The players don’t have to do the latter part there, but for as frustrating as coming up a game short over and over and over again has been for us, imagine you’re Logan or Cal or J.P. or one of the other positive contributors to this era.

You’re putting in a lot of work. You’re fighting like hell. You’re grinding.

We have your back. And what a group of guys this will be to follow for the next six months.

It’s not perfect, obviously, but man. The outfield—the vibiest most aura-exuding outfield you will ever see. The pitching staff is elite, yes, but also a bunch of goofballs.

For as frustrating as being a Mariners fan can often be, you can’t help but love these players—these people.

So…the Dan Wilson Era

I was thinking about it on a run this week and settled on midseason 2027 for when I will finally become fully accustomed to Dan Wilson being the manager of the Mariners.

I have no idea what to expect.

I’ve long said “steward of the vibes” is probably the single most important part of being a manager and what that looks like for a dude like Dan Wilson, we’ll see.

More old school? Maybe? Does that look…enormously different from the outside looking in? Prooobably not.

The biggest reason for optimism from me on Dan and associated changes to the coaching staff is not that this way is better than that way or that this voice carries more weight than that one did.

It’s just—it’s different. And sometimes different is enough.

It’s an old sports adage and mostly from the football world but this is one spot I’ll lend ‘em some credence: sometimes you do just need a different voice.

If nothing else, Dan is a different voice.

Sometimes that’s enough. And that’s a valid reason for optimism.

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This ended up longer than intended, as these posts often do.

We’ll wrap it up with very popular word at the corner of Edgar & Dave: Process.

“Our people, our process,” as Andy McKay often says.

Setting ownership aside, the Mariners’ process has largely been sound. And it’s produced people who can play the game of baseball and play it well.

This team focuses on processes, as most good teams often do, because it’s easier to control processes than it is to control outcomes—if you can control outcomes at all.

Still, the reason for processes is to produce desired outcomes.

This all doesn’t have to produce the best outcome every time. But it’s gotta do it once.

This all has to work one time. It has to.

Let it be 2025.

Let’s have a great year, all. I love baseball, I love the M’s and I love enjoying both with all of you.

Let’s have some fun.

95-67.

Go M’s.