You really don’t see the phrase #PayrollTwitter used much anymore. It was a big thing a couple years ago in the mentions of people who would talk about the middle-infielders the Mariners should’ve and didn’t sign. The Rangers winning the World Series kind of put an end to the trope.
The craziest part of the discourse was that it’d sometimes devolve into the notion that, actually, adding more good players is bad. It was weird. It sucked.
And now, instead, we have the Mariners and their owners signaling it would be bad, strategically, for them to add one of the best players in the game in Juan Soto. Perhaps one of the best players ever.
We have a few pieces now saying as much, before the first game of World Series is played—one $300 million team against another.
First, from Ryan Divish and Adam Jude at the end of September:
[John Stanton] has, according to multiple sources, promised that player payroll will increase for the 2025 season.
How much? That’s not entirely clear.
How will that influence the club’s offseason spending? That’s not entirely clear, either.
What is clear: The Mariners do not intend to dive into the deep end of the free-agent pool this winter.
Which means they won’t pursue the likes of Juan Soto or Pete Alonso or Alex Bregman or any other high-priced veteran. Not because they can’t afford it, Stanton has explained, but because as matter of baseball economics the Mariners don’t want to pay top dollar for aging players.
They could afford these players, for sure. According to them, they could do it if they wanted.
But they don’t want to—because they’re smarter than that. Smarter than signing an aging player like Juan Soto.
Stanton, in his own words, explained to MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer the organization was at the whims of their market size. Nothing they can do.
“We’re roughly the 15th-largest market in baseball,” Stanton said. “We're pretty much smack dab in the middle in terms of the size of the market, and that means that we're about average in our ability to generate revenue and to do those things. I think, to me, the word that we use a lot -- and our objective -- is to have a sustainable franchise over a long period of time.”
Seattle-Tacoma is the 13th-biggest media market in the United States. A 13th-ranked payroll, instead of 18th, would’ve meant approximately another $25 million for Jerry Dipoto’s front office to spend in 2024.
That, however, is setting aside that Portland, Oregon—in the Mariners’ protected television footprint—is the 23rd-largest media market in the country, one spot ahead of St. Louis at 24th.
The 2024 St. Louis Cardinals were 12th in payroll last year. Huh.
The idea is that they just can’t do it without…what? Going belly-up? Going through a spell where they…spend below their market size and endure a stretch of non-playoff seasons? We did that! We are still doing that.
We’ll get to why we—and they—don’t need to simply accept their supposed financial restrictions but what I don’t want to hear is that it isn’t a good idea, strategically, to pursue Juan Soto.
Do you realize how young he is?
You don’t need a whole lot to tell you the Mariners will probably be out on Juan Soto. Just as they were not serious suitors for Shohei Ohtani or Aaron Judge or Mookie Betts or Francisco Lindor or…almost anyone of that ilk, they will not be pursuing another generational player this time around.
Based on the reporting and analysis in the Times, it will not be for lack of funds, but because they don’t want to pay top money for aging players.
While I think that’s a line the fellas would probably like to revise a little given the blowback, it cannot be said enough,
Juan Soto is 25 years old.
I know, I know—what they meant is that they don’t want to still be paying top dollar when Soto is, gasp, 33 years old.
Just for a frame of reference on Soto’s age, he is younger than:
Logan Gilbert
George Kirby
Cal Raleigh
Bryce Miller
Dominic Canzone, for whatever that’s worth
He’s young and he’s good. Because of the combination of the two, he’ll be good for a long while.
How good?
Juan Soto is a god-tier baseball player
Then there’s the other thing—do people realize how good, how transcendent Juan Soto is? Again, he is basically Bryce Miller’s age and he’s halfway to being a Hall of Famer.
He’s on a trajectory to be one of the greatest to ever play the game.
Here’s some really, really simple context for you.
When you look, by wRC+, at players who have at least 3,000 plate appearances (approximately five seasons), Juan Soto is one of the 15 best hitters…in the history of baseball. Right there with the names Moonlight Graham was listing off when he first saw them on the Kinsella’s farm.
He has more of his prime in front of him—but his career to date has been as good as many dudes’ peak years.
Since Soto debuted in May of 2018 at the enviable age of 19, rocketing from A-ball to the Majors before Memorial Day, only three position players have been more valuable.
All three of the players above him have been available in trade or free agency since the Mariners began their competitive step-back. They’d be wise to, this time, not abstain from pursuing a generational player.
But that’s exactly what they’re going to do. Even if they shouldn’t.
Why Soto makes sense for the Mariners right now
Who’s down to riff? Let’s riff.
Soooooo, about the next broadcast deal
The Mariners will probably be on ROOT SPORTS in 2025. It’d be a safe guess to say the setup will be about the same as it was in 2024. So, old-school and generally pretty crummy.
After that though?
While we don’t know for sure what the next broadcast deal or strategy will look like, it’s reasonable to expect a stronger relationship between on-field performance and television revenue. Long gone are the days where ball clubs got a bunch of money because everyone had cable and every cable package had the ballgames so the team passively made a bunch of money.
Now, you’ll have to earn it. At least locally.
Even if the Mariners go with something like the Kraken did, a combination of an over-the-air deal with an entity like Amazon while also broadcasting games over the air, a sizable portion of revenue will come from advertising—and advertising needs eyeballs.
It will pay to have a good, star-studded team from day one of that new setup.
They need lefty pop
T-Mobile Park was built with another generational lefty hitter in mind—and it’d be nice to see one actually play a chunk of his career there.
The ballpark has generally crushed righty power, which has led Mariners front offices to chase right-handed sluggers who hit the crap out of the ball, to varying degrees of success (Nelson Cruz/Mitch Garver).
Instead of trying to conquer the park, maybe the front office should go back to what they were saying when they first came in—and play to it? Cal’s shown you can mash as a lefty in Seattle. Kyle Seager and Robinson Canó, too.
Bringing in Soto would also add balance to a lineup whose best hitters (save for Cal) are all righty.
About that…
What about the existing outfield?
Add talent. Figure the rest out later.
Add talent, add talent, add talent.
It’s as simple as that. The Mariners don’t need to constantly be chasing the person who does exactly this or a little less of that—they need good players. Juan Soto is a great player.
What would it mean for Victor Robles and Randy Arozarena? One, it doesn’t matter because this won’t happen. Two, it doesn’t matter because it’s Juan Soto. And three, it doesn’t matter because you can always move someone if you need to.
You add talent. You can redistribute it later. Jazz Chisholm is playing third base for the Yankees in the World Series. Whoopsadoodle.
They need a veteran leader…who produces
Juan Soto has been one of the best players on a pennant-winning team twice before turning 26. He’s battle-tested.
In fawning over Justin Turner, the Mariners clubhouse has shown they need some veteran leadership. They need someone who has been there and done that.
But it’s hard to be that veteran leader if you’re playing like ass. Or not playing at all.
Justin Turner was productive for the Mariners in 2024, posting a 126 wRC+ across 159 plate appearances. Does that continue in his age 40 season? Like, for sure? It’s not the best bet in the world.
That isn’t to say “The Mariners need Juan Soto, not Justin Turner!” because duh obviously, but also that’s a false dichotomy.
They just need a vet who produces. They need someone who they know other guys will fall in line behind and listen to. Whether it’s Soto (probably not) or someone else (Justin Turner, gulp), that leader needs to produce or they will be tuned out—or too busy figuring their own situation out.
You’d be set
If you signed Juan Soto to the type of deal he’d command—Spotrac puts their valuation (probably an AAV floor) at 14 years and $514 million—you would be locked into your stars for discernible future. As a mid-/upper-mid-market team, you’re almost certainly not adding another superstar beyond Soto and Julio Rodríguez.
And that is…not a problem whatsoever.
You would have the core of your lineup set for a decade with two dynamic and eccentric Dominican dudes—one of the greatest hitters to ever play the game and a homegrown athletic specimen whose best days are ahead of him.
It’s an investment, but it’s an investment like buying Apple or Amazon stock a decade ago. They’re going to keep cooking.
Play the valuation game
You’re going to sell the team eventually…….right? The vast majority of this ownership group is, best-we-can-tell, boomer-age dudes. While many folks would like to see a sale by Opening Day, that isn’t happening.
But will these guys still be owning the Seattle Mariners when Juan Soto’s next contract comes to an end, if it goes out a decade? I don’t know. Maybe they are—and maybe a younger Stanton is GM and owner, but maybe they read the writing on the wall that there’s no time like the present or near-future to get out on the sports valuation bubble.
So land one of the biggest stars in the game, pair him with one of the other biggest stars in the game, operate as one of the game’s best and most successful teams for a half-decade or more and cash out to the tune of $3 billion without even having to sign Soto’s last dozen paychecks.
This has always been how sports owners make their money. At least, the real money.
By the sound of it, this ownership group really needs that year-to-year income. For whatever reason, whether that’s being leveraged out on debt or just never having the kind of juice other sports owners have, they’re cash-poor.
Gas this baby up and check on out. I bet a new crew would let you keep a small stake and some good seats.
It’d be a lot more fun to be remembered as the guy who did that than the guy who’s doing…all of this.
“He was never going to sign here anyway.”
We’ll close out on this sentiment—one we’ll hear when Soto signs his deal elsewhere, probably with one of the New York teams. Maybe the Dodgers or Giants.
We already hear “He would never sign in Seattle” plenty. And some folks are, somewhat understandably, sick of even talking about Juan Soto.
I’ve hit on it before with Shohei Ohtani and, before that, Aaron Judge.
No, Juan Soto is never going to sign with these Seattle Mariners. He’d never end up here. That, in itself, is the problem.
The Seattle Mariners are not the type of organization that goes after and lands a player like Juan Soto. A little more than a decade ago, they were. Or at least we thought they could be.
Now they don’t even give us hope.
They’re out on Juan Soto.
If they signed Soto for $50 million a year, the 2025 Mariners would still be approximately $40 million below the first luxury tax threshold. That threshold—still well north of this team with Soto—is not an unreasonable level to expect a team smack-dab in the middle of a contention window, playing in a top-half media market with über-wealth all over the place, to be at.
It’s not.
Of course, that’s not reality. But it doesn’t mean we have to accept it, despite it not mattering if we do or not. It doesn’t mean we’ll be surprised when he signs elsewhere, or if the Mariners continue to signal they’re out. It just means we hate it—and can continue to express as much.
Because we know the Mariners could be so much more. We know the Mariners should be so much more. And setting that aside shouldn’t be a requirement to be a fan, as much as the organization would seemingly like it to be.
It is what it is. And what it is sucks.
Juan Soto is absolutely the right player at the right time for the Seattle Mariners.
And they will not even try to sign him.