It was funny how many Mariners people were going to see a movie tonight and tweeted something like “Headed to Deadpool. Looking forward to turning my phone back on for a Mariners blockbuster. Just watch.”
Like, have you followed this team? Man, I love “Put stuff out into the universe that you want to happen, not stuff you don’t” more than anyone but I couldn’t help but smirk at those ambitions.
It’s Thursday, the trade deadline is Tuesday. Look for something borderline palatable on Sunday or Monday and then Chris Denorfia or Cameron Maybin first thing on Tuesday morning.
Nah. Nah.
How about one of the most likable players in the game headed to Seattle in exchange for two prospects who are not among the half-dozen or more the organization has in the game’s top 100?
That’ll play. That will play.
Welcome, Randy Arozarena. Going out: OF Aidan Smith (No. 12 among Mariners Top 30 prospects), RHP Brody Hopkins (No. 22) and a player to be named later.
I’m not going to go into detail here on the outbound prospects but will say prospect rankings and independent evaluators are lagging indicators on the true value of a player. You will hear—and have heard—a number of plugged-in prospect hounds laude the skill-sets of Smith and Hopkins.
That’s deserved. Back in the day you’d hear more about the logical fallacy of deferring to authority but in today’s game more (all?) front offices know who’s good and who’s not and the traits that separate one group from the other. Players get traded for certain players for a reason.
Nevertheless, the Mariners got Randy Arozarena because he’s good. And he is good.
Let’s get it, Randy
It’s fair to say we should not overplay this acquisition. Across the baseball landscape, and especially in Mariners-specific spaces, you will hear this called a “blockbuster.” And by baseball standards it probably is.
This is not, however, a franchise-altering move. Not on its own.
But by dwelling too much on this you lose sight of how good this dude is and can be.
Since the start of 2021, Randy Arozarena is the 16th-best outfielder in the game. Here’s what the collection of names around him looks like.
Obviously, not everyone here is a bonafide star but the extended track record points to an issue Mariners fans tend to overlook when they contrive theses like “Well when you combine this player with that player and look at their best year, they could be just as good as this other guy.”
And it’s this: When you get good players, their down years are usually still pretty damn good.
Randy Arozarena, right now, is having a down year. His .213/.319/.398 triple-slash represents the worst average, OBP and slugging marks of his career.
And yet, his 110 wRC+ is better than any Mariners hitter. Every single one.
Obviously, that’s a low bar to clear. Remember that when people commentating on last year’s deadline say something like “Who knows where the Mariners would be without Josh Rojas!” but I digress.
Still, being above average is helpful. Being above average when average isn’t even available and instead you’re replacing absolute dogshit production, that’s a big deal.
There’s reason, as well, to hope for more.
Here’s two important stats framed in my favorite “How’s he lookin’ lately?” framework—rolling 15-game splits.
After an early-season lull, Randy’s rounding into the guy we know him to be. He’s, as the old-timey broadcasters put it, on his way to putting up the numbers on the back of his baseball card.
I’ll be honest here. That’s all I can be. I am a homer blogger Mariners fan and these are the words of a homer blogger Mariners fan—I’m more receptive to random small-sample splits when they’re numbers I like for a player I like than when they’re not.
That said, since June 1st, Randy Arozarena is hitting .290/.402/.517 for a 166 wRC+. That is the 16th-best offensive output over that span in all of baseball among qualified hitters.
Dude can bang with the best of them when he’s on. The Mariners need that and they need it now.
They can’t be done
One thing that’s weird and interesting about our digital landscape is its relative permanence. You can go and find some weird stuff in the archives. Especially mine. But for those who don’t search, when it’s left to just me, I’m gonna remember the stuff I got right over the piles upon piles of stuff I got wrong.
After the 2022 trade deadline, one in which they acquired the best pitcher on the market, a “C” grade. They broke the longest playoff drought in North American and, honestly, I largely stand by it.
We’ve been over it on this blog time and time again but in simplest terms, the 2022 Mariners did not go out and get the bat they needed and saw their season end when they couldn’t score a single run over 18 innings.
How much further could they have gone if they beat the Astros? You know. We all know. We were all thinking it then. We still think it now.
That team could’ve been special. Even more special. Same for the year before it and the year after.
This team, even when it’s made a big move, should only have regrets when it comes to asking itself if it’s done enough in recent trade deadlines. Even when they got a frontline hoss, they should’ve done more.
Could they have? Only they know.
The Mariners acquired a player in Randy Arozarena who represents, in part, exactly what they need. He’s an offensive mainstay who puts up numbers year-in and year-out and brings in 80-grade clubhouse vibes.
Like everyone else, I cannot wait to see him and Julio playing alongside each other in the outfield. It’s going to be so fun.
Given all that, the Mariners still have the artillery to do more. Depending on which outlet you check, the Mariners have a handful or more of the top 100 prospects in the game. One dude even says they have the fifth-best prospect in the sport.
Vladito, LuBob—if there’s an available player out there they want, they can go and get them.
This is why you do what you do, why you put together the world-class player development program they have.
Honestly, it kind of sucks, because you’ve put so much into getting young kids to buy into your culture but when ownership isn’t giving you the same financial resources the sport’s top teams are getting, this is how you acquire premium talent.
You keep prospects long enough for them contribute or move ‘em before you find out they will not.
Life is short. You only get so many shots.
I wrote it at the deadline last year: while the current predicament isn’t perfect, you have so much known data that points towards pushing on and pushing your chips in.
You have this rotation—and right now, you know they’re healthy. You know, with even an average offense, this team is as good as any other.
So give them a chance to show it.
We all only get so many summers. The general manager of a baseball team gets even fewer.
While Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander can’t make trades willy-nilly without ownership’s approval, they should be pushing as much as possible to capitalize on the present.
The present isn’t perfect, but it’s what we have.
And what we have is, come Tuesday night, a 54-game sprint to the tape. After what we’ve run so far, it’s going to feel like hell.
Even if it all works out and the Mariners are hanging a division pennant on Opening Day of 2025, this team will be declared dead close to a handful of times between now and October.
But this front office can make it all worth it.
So often the Mariners find themselves at the whims of their circumstances.
Oh if it weren’t for this, they would have done that. And if it weren’t for that, then they would’ve done this. And even when they did that, it worked out like this—and because of the broader landscape, they came up short
Now is the time to control their circumstances.
They’ve controlled so much to this point and even the stuff they haven’t has broken their way.
They need to win a banged-up and busted American League West. They can win a banged-up and busted AL West.
So go do it. Get a home playoff series in Seattle for the first time in 23 years and build a team that’s capable of going well beyond that—whether it’s in 2024 or after.
For so, so, so goddamn long, we’ve been looking for a Seattle Mariners team to round the corner. Over the next four days, Jerry Dipoto can continue to build out the framework of a team capable of doing so.
He and his Baseball Ops group have put themselves in position to even see that bend. They have a few core offensive pieces, they have the world-class rotation—but they need more, not a lot more in quantity but plenty in quality.
So go out and get it.
Make this year special and use the coming days to shape this franchise into something resembling the one we all know it can be.
It’s possible, but it takes some courage. It takes some risk. It takes ambition.
So let’s see it.
Go M’s.