Maybe just go get Yandy Díaz?

Save your offseason. Don’t overthink it.

What would the worst possible first half of the offseason look for the will-be 2025 Mariners? And is it even still just a half anymore? Either way, it’d almost certainly look worse than this.

Probably a full step back on payroll, led by attaching a top ten prospect or two to the collars of the Mitches on their way out of town. Then Logan Gilbert is sent away for a meh return because he’s the closest to arbitration. Already being told Randy Arozarena was this year’s big move.

Obviously, it isn’t that bad. Not yet.

But if you were to go back to just after the final out of the World Series and ponder how poorly the 66 days between then and now would realistically go, you’d get something like what we’ve seen. I think even a realistic guess might have the Mariners better off than their present situation.

That situation will change, though. It has to. Right?

A lot of this has been waiting for the market to come to them. And it still might. Maybe it is? But you have to reach a little bit. Like Kunu/Paul Rudd to Jason Segel in Forgetting Sarah Marshall, you gotta do something.

Maybe they don’t need to overthink it.

The title gives it away but I’ll walk you through the simple thought process here.

The Mariners need offense. They need impact. I don’t know who’s for sure going to be good next year. Nobody does. Some may be a little better, others worse. And then these are people. The future is unknowable. Unless you have the gift of precognition.

We—we have FanGraphs. And this time of year, their Depth Charts projections are the most complete and while they’re not perfect, they know more than me.

The Mariners need hitters. So who does it think will be the best hitters next year?

Yordán Alvarez first—that’s unfortunate.

Aaron Judge, he’s not going anywhere.

Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani next, maybe in a different universe, at a different time, on the other side of a black hole at the center of a galaxy a couple quadrillion light years over.

The Jays are apparently keeping Vladito for now?

Gunnar Henderson is like young ARod.

Acuña, Tatís, Seager, Witt; the Mariners aren’t paying up for Tatís.

The Astros already (amazingly) traded Kyle Tucker and probably weren’t going to in the division.

Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman all changed hands since the Mariners started their rebuild and they aren’t gonna add them now.

José Ramírez is the dream addition and has been for a long time but Cleveland already moved the contract they wanted to move and JRam’s got a no-trade clause because he wants to be there.

And then, projected to notch a .286/.365/.441 slash line for a 136 wRC+ and be the 16th-best hitter in baseball (one spot ahead of Julio) is Tampa Bay Rays first baseman Yandy Díaz.

He’s a guy teams—including the Mariners—tried to pry loose last summer. Reports say the Rays aren’t shopping him but he’s likely in the same precarious spot he was then and available for the right price now.

The Mariners should pay it.

Everyone worries a lot about how any Major Leaguer of value is going to cost one of your very best guys. Maybe multiple.

I liked a point Jordan Shusterman raised on the last episode of the Times’s Extra Innings podcast, which was simple: the Mariners got Randy Arozarena for Aidan Smith, Brody Hopkins and Ty Cummings. That’d be, as of last summer (FanGraphs again), their #7, #21 and ~#40th?-best prospects.

The Rays want Major League pieces. Who doesn’t?

I never do these proposals because they’re almost never anywhere close. I don’t expect this to be.

Start with Harry Ford and one of Emerson Hancock or Logan Evans. Basically Major Leaguers. How much more do they want? I’d like to know, because that’s a cost the Mariners should be willing to give up.

Why? I’ll hit you with a few bullets. I’d like to write shorter and (sigh, I am really sorry, again…) more frequent blog posts. So let’s try that.

Why Yandy?

• I know they say a run prevented is a run scored. A run created this way is the same as one created that way. But I think all the pieces still have to fit together in a way that produces at or above the sum of the parts. The Mariners need proven offense. Go get proven offense. Pay up. Over the last three years, he’s the tenth-best hitter in baseball with a 142 wRC+. That’s prime Canó offense. Don’t overthink this. You need a thumper and have the position to play him.

• Speaking of—don’t waste what makes Luke Raley valuable, his flexibility and athleticism. You’re right-handed across the outfield. Both your DH options are right-handed. Luke Raley can slot into any of these spots, getting plenty of starts. A 120 wRC+ in that role is more valuable than as the strong side of a platoon at the position second lowest on the defensive spectrum—and best used by a bopper. Really good teams have guys like Luke Raley, but they don’t have them primarily starting at first base.

• Wins now and wins in the future aren’t worth the same thing. The Mariners’ starters are healthy now. They’re hitting their prime now. So are their key up-the-middle guys in Julio and Cal. If Díaz gives you six fWAR over two seasons in 2025 and 2026, getting you at least to the ALCS, but Ford produces 10 fWAR on his own spread across 2027-2030 in Tampa or Portland or wherever—those aren’t the same thing. And it’s worth it. Plus, your side is more likely than theirs.

• You want a guy who’s been around the block and can lead by example? Here you go. I get that Justin Turner was another hitting coach and would be cheaper, but he isn’t giving you what Díaz gives you on the production front and Díaz might give you something like what Turner gave the clubhouse last year. I know, know, there’s supposed Yandy/Randy beef but they’ve gotten over it before. They had a kerfuffle at the end of 2022 and combined to produce 8.0 fWAR while sharing the same clubhouse in 2023. It’s fine.

• Always worth mentioning—the money. The money is also fine. Díaz makes $10 million this year and has a club option at $12 million for next year. It’s so reasonable. That’s why he’d cost real prospects. Guys cost what they cost, some way or another. But here’s a spot where you can spend your prospect capital and move the value it give you up on the timeline.

That’s about enough. At least, that’s the big stuff I was thinking.

Maybe the Rays want more players, higher-ceiling guys? Then they can talk about including Josh Lowe, too. It’d be like when the A’s got Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel from the Cubs in 2012 because they were willing to give up Addison Russell.

Where does the time go?

It goes by fast. Take your shots when they’re there to be taken.

I’m sure there’s a standing offer from the Rays for what it’d take to land Yandy Díaz. And I’m sure the Mariners don’t want to pay it because if they did, he’d be a Mariner already.

But is it really more than the Mariners can afford to give up? I’d like to know.

And if it’s something like what I described above, maybe a little more, make the move.

There’s still a path to have a productive winter.