The Mariners and their standing in the American League

Are they among the AL's best? Not yet—though it doesn't matter yet, either.

The last time the Mariners led the American League West by at least three and a half games was in August of 2003. It was a Tuesday night game in Toronto and Ryan Franklin got the win. Edgar Martinez homered and drove in four; Bret Boone went deep, too. The Blue Jays’ logo had a maple leaf tattoo.

That’s the last time before now, of course, as the Mariners lead the Rangers by those three and a half games and the Astros by two more than that.

It’s all pretty rad. It’s not even June and we can talk realistically about the possibility of the Mariners running away and hiding with the division. In just the two games ahead, they can do serious work in narrowing the path the Astros have between themselves and another division title.

Alternatively, your Seattle Mariners have the sixth-best record in the AL. Their run differential is -4, three runs above Houston and five below the Rangers—at ninth in the league and 14th in all of baseball. If they weren’t leading their division, they’d trail the Twins by a game for the final Wild Card spot.

Does it mean something? Does it not mean something? I don’t know.

The Mariners played seven games against two of the best teams in the American League, on the road, and went 3-4. It was an ugly, hard-fought and occasionally lucky 3-4, but it was 3-4 nonetheless.

I feel like I can say the Yankees and Orioles are better than the Mariners. Probably.

I can say they’re more talented. Almost assuredly. I don’t know if that’s the same thing as “better,” but even if it is, even the measure of “better” has an extent to its usefulness.

Why we fret

There’s been an underlying theme to Mariners discourse going on four years now, and it’s something I’ve hit on a bunch of times—it’s the difference between being good and being great.

Even before getting to whether the Mariners are good (probably) or great (definitely not right now), there’s the debate on how much it even matters. And right now, it’s a reasonable debate because you probably don’t need to be great to win this version of the West.

But what’s lost therein is why you hear some folks, sometimes myself, worry about style points right now. Speaking only for myself, I try not to get too low given the broader context but I do still internally bristle a smidge when folks chide others with something like “The team is in first place by multiple games and y’all are freaking out?!”

There’s no reason to freak out now, even when they do hit a skid. But the reason folks occasionally fret is not because things are bad, but because the team is to date about what we’ve expected and what we’ve seen from them the last three seasons—and, thus, that leaves some unpleasant outcomes still in play.

Like missing the playoffs. Like missing the playoffs in the heart of a contention window—for the second year in a row after ending the drought.

Hell, they could win the division for the first time in 23 years and be eliminated a round earlier than they were two years ago, still without a win in the ALDS since 2001.

I’m not saying these outcomes are likely or anything close to it. But the 2024 Mariners could’ve nearly eliminated one of them, the possibility of missing the playoffs entirely, had they come out of the gates stronger. Imagine the “3.5 GB” next to the Rangers being twice that. Imagine the Astros ten down.

Still, the question remains—does it matter?

The schedule is sawft

When I shared the following note on Twitter, I said I’m not a big strength of schedule guy. It feels like it matters less in baseball than it does in other sports and we know damn well the Mariners can lose to anyone.

Then again, sometimes the boys are hot, rocking and rolling and you look back on the stretch and oh will you look at that, they played garbage water teams.

The Mariners have a lot of games left against garbage water teams.

There’s “Oh that’s nice when you break it down by winning percentage that the schedule is kinda light” and then there’s a level above (below?) that, and that’s the Mariners’ remaining slate.

The Oakland Athletics, New York Mets, Los Angeles Angels, Miami Marlins and Chicago White Sox are five of the six worst teams in baseball.

The Mariners will play them 36 times—that is 29 percent of their remaining games. Nobody has it better.

The Mariners may not have a great run differential right now. They don’t have the best record either. But, as is often the case with this era of teams, they’re better being evaluated at the end of the slate.

Still, sometimes it isn’t enough. And that can’t be the case this year.

Have to take advantage

This is the dream scenario for Mariners ownership and the execs who have them as direct bosses.

They have longed for the day when the Astros would come back down to earth, the Rangers wouldn’t quite be deep enough to keep up and the Mariners would ascend to the top of the division…all while running, at most, a league-average payroll.

You could’ve scripted it a year or two earlier, perhaps without the two titles for your rivals, but you couldn’t script it any better.

The door has been flung wide open without the Mariners having to play on the level of the sport’s upper echelon.

There’s a few joints being held together with freshly-chewed gum from a mid-90s pack of Topps, so concerns about the club fading are warranted—but there’s also reinforcements on the way, too.

Those will come both internally and externally.

I want to do a broader piece on why these players and this clubhouse deserves to have ownership and this organization have their back and take a shot—but here I just want to say there is one place where it pays to be great vs. good.

In the Postseason, in a tournament, anything can happen. I know. The tournament has changed, though.

I mentioned it above. It’s intrusive idea I hate even putting out into the universe—the Mariners could win the American League West and bow out in a three-game Wild Card series. They could lose one game they just get beat, one total fluke and welp, they’re done. Raising the banner the next year would be nauseating.

Obviously, those three games would be at home. And they’d probably be favored in the series. But even if you do win, your pitching won’t be as rested nor lined up as your ALDS opponent. You won’t have the first two games of a still-extremely-short five-game series at home.

I know, it’s May. It’s insane to talk about bullpen availability going into the ALDS. I get it.

But that’s where the Mariners’ eyes should be. They should target not only a run, but a deep run.

This ball club isn’t yet on the level of the best teams in the American League. Still, with the opportunity ahead, they should strive to not only to reach that level—but surpass it.

We still want that pennant. You should too.

Go M’s.