The offseason’s over—what do we think?
Everyone’s kind of doing this now so we might as well join ‘em before camp really gets rolling.
The winter is over. That’s one of my favorite things about Seattle, something my Dad would always say to people when we first moved to the area, that yeah the winters are dark and damp but they start baseball practice in about January or early February
The good weather days start coming with fewer and fewer bad days in-between them and all of a sudden Opening Day is the week after next.
We’re still a long ways from home but the offseason is over. Before we move full bore into spring training storylines, let’s put a quick bow on what should be one of the most pivotal winters in franchise history.
Let’s set the scene the way we did in our Brendan Donovan post—another week, another projection system that loves your 2026 Seattle Mariners.
It’s PECOTA szn over at Baseball Prospectus and the M’s do not even officially make the Teams PECOTA Likes article because “the Mariners, were very good last year and surprise surprise, they’re also projected to be very good this year.”
How good?
At 93 wins, the Mariners project to be seven wins clear of the Astros in the West, five wins above the AL East’s best (Toronto and New York) and…11 wins worse than the Dodgers.
It says a lot about baseball right now.
Before that, quick recap of the major moves:
Josh Naylor signed for five years, $92.5 million (full no-trade clause)
Brendan Donovan acquired from Cardinals for Jurrangelo Cijntje and Tai Peete
Jose A. Ferrer acquired from Nationals for Harry Ford and Isaac Lyon
Rob Refsnyder signed for one year, $6.25 million
Because it’s the flavor of the week, what grade would I slap on that?
I’d give the Mariners offseason a B.
Just a regular-old ‘B’.
Why? First off, because it’s my blog and that’s what these words are for. But also because they met expectations. And a ‘B’ is actually pretty good for that.
When the Mariners signed Josh Naylor to kick off not only their offseason but basically all of baseball’s, I wrote the following:
Jerry Dipoto, Justin Hollander and crew are surely already bouncing out of their corner and ready for another round of transacting.
Maybe one year of Tarik Skubal costs less in prospect capital than most expect. Ketel Marte’s out there, too, probably.
Plus, leave it to this front office to conjure something together out of thin air.
They’ve got the time, positioning and prospect armory to do something special. And they should be given every opportunity to do just that.
This should be the golden era of Mariners Baseball. The hardware that’d make it undeniable is closer now than it ever has been.
No Tarik Skubal, no Ketel Marte, nothing you could say was pulled out from the ether.
A trophy and parade are still closer than they’ve ever been—but things sure feel a bit different after the Seahawks marched to a title then through the streets of Seattle.
Obviously, you can’t make someone make a trade. And you can’t trade for players who were never available.
But there are a group of players who are freely available. They’re not always the best value on a dollars per WAR perspective but that’s part of the deal—in pure dollars, they cost more but they don’t cost any players at all.
Yes, Josh Naylor was a free agent before re-signing with the Mariners. But Josh Naylor isn’t an improvement over Josh Naylor and the last time we saw the Seattle Mariners on the field, they sure as hell had Josh Naylor.
In terms of adding to their club, the Mariners took more damage than they dealt in free agency. It’s not unexpected, but it’s a relative bummer nonetheless.
I know it’s a common trope around these parts but it’s a good time to take a look at the ‘ol FanGraphs Payroll Breakdown.
I won’t include the whole list in the screenshot but I do have to include most of it or it wouldn’t have the Mariners.
Yeah dude, 17th. From a contextual standpoint, payroll is actually down from where it was on Opening Day of last year—as the M’s ranked 15th then.
More recently, Baltimore shot past the Mariners with their signing of Chris Bassitt to bolster a rotation that badly needed help. Another noteworthy team: the Detroit Tigers, who have launched themselves into the top ten in payroll, a full $45 million clear of the Mariners.
The M’s should be considerably better than Detroit but imagine how much better than everyone in the American League the Mariners could be if they had resources on the level of the Tigers (???).
Pick a player.
Like, Alex Bregman’s not perfect but imagine what a luxury it’d be to have him locked in at third with Donovan anchored at second but ready to be pushed all over the diamond by whichever one of Colt Emerson or Cole Young wins the broken-pool-cue fight.
Oh no, now Colt Emerson might be taking J.P. Crawford starting job at short because Cole Young is also good? And now there are really quality players sliding over to DH?
Sounds like a great club.
The 2026 Mariners may yet be a great club. They truly are in an incredible position, perhaps a better one than they entered any of their other 49 seasons.
Even so, one thing is clear about the game today: there’s really only one MLB team that’s truly gunning it for a title.
The Mariners will look to be the best of the one that aren’t. And then take the Dodgers in seven.
We’re on to spring training.
Go M’s.