The Seattle Mariners were not going to make it to the end of the season without a stretch of play like the one currently bludgeoning them over the head. Now, when I first wrote this intro—before the homestand and more bad baseball—I said they’d probably have another one like it, too.
That may still be the case. But now, with this brutal run continuing much longer than it should’ve, another one like would kill the season.
A significant lull in the middle of the season though? Happens.
That’s baseball. The Yankees are 18 games over and fans are ready to murder everyone not named Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. They’ve lost 15 of 20.
FanGraphs gives them the better odds to win the World Series than any other team in the American League.
The Mariners are not the New York Yankees. Obviously. If they were, they wouldn’t trade useful players for cash relief. But I digress.
Down here on the second tier of the American League, things are just as, uh, fervent. But they’re also more dire, more pressing. More real.
The trade deadline is three weeks from today.
A lot can happen in three weeks. And if a lot doesn’t happen in three weeks, I wouldn’t expect much to happen at the deadline either.
The Mariners added at least one piece after Sunday’s debacle, with Gregory Santos joining the bullpen and surely slotting into the eighth inning spot ahead of Andrés Muñoz.
Is Ryne Stanek, after the back breaker to George Springer, still the next man up after that? Was he even still? Ehhhh.
Again, three weeks to the deadline.
That’s one road trip, the break, a homestand and then a half of a road trip. Five series. Sixteen games.
Of those 16 games, ten are against the White Sox and Angels.
As much as folks are clamoring, understandably so, for big moves before first pitch at Petco Park, I’d be surprised if we see them even before the All-Star Break. Or beyond a day or two before the deadline itself.
Will we see lineup shuffling? Sure. A meaningful DFA? Maaaaaybe. But I doubt it.
Much like everyone else, I liked what Cal said following Sunday’s defeat.
As told to Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times:
“There’s nothing really to say at this point. We didn’t come through. You’ve got to find a way. It falls on us, nobody else but the players. When we’re in the box, it’s on us. We have to make adjustments and we’ve got to find a way to get it done.”
He’s right.
This group of 26 guys will decide who’s going to be here. And they will decide what they’re playing for.
I’m not one to get into big specifics—swap this guy for that guy, DFA him for him, trade these three dudes for that one—but in a sport where small samples can doom decisions, you’re gonna see some freaking lives changed in the next three weeks.
At the weaker points in the roster, players are playing for where their career goes from here.
Jorge Polanco, Mitch Haniger and Ty France have been good players in this game. The first two have made decent money, too.
It isn’t like any of them are on their last very last chance playing under bright lights but a DFA could be the trapdoor above a slide that loops through Pittsburgh or Denver or Scranton before hitting Seoul or Mexico City or Abu Dhabi.
You don’t want that.
Dominic Canzone is those same three weeks from hitting a year into his Mariner tenure. The bat wasn’t enough help to push the Mariners into the Postseason last year and it’s only marginally better now but it’d make a pretty decent toss-in if the Mariners decide to actually upgrade a corner outfield spot.
Y’all seeing how Victor Robles is playing? Since joining the Mariners on June 5th, he has one fewer barrel than Ty and Dom combined. His six match Mitch Haniger’s total over that span in a third of the plate appearances.
It’s a simplistic way of looking at things, yeah, but if you wanna be here then play like you want to be here.
That isn’t to give a pass to the upper half of this roster, either.
While some guys are playing to stay on the roster, the rest are playing to have a strong say in what the rest of the regular season—and beyond—will look like.
This club’s another tough week from losing their division lead and a playoff spot entirely.
You don’t think this ownership group would love to avoid adding even Luis Robert’s midlevel money? Or anyone that isn’t quad-A fodder? To point to their handful of Top 100 prospects and trot Jerry or Justin out there to say “We really liked we were able to augment our club not just for 2024 but for 2025 and beyond.”?
All while giving you a slim chance the rest of the way and next-to-none in October?
Don’t let them.
I get it. If there’s anyone who gets it, it’s me. I wish this organization did more to put a world-class team on the field. I wish they invested on the level of the best clubs in the sport.
But also, forgive me—players gotta play better.
We’re talking about not swinging through fastballs in the heart of the plate. We’re talking about moving runners over when you have to move the runner over. We’re talking about putting the gottdamn ball in play.
We’re also, on a higher level, talking about building on the legacy of the 2022 Mariners and the young core that had us dreaming big during game one in Houston—and still clenching those tattered dreams after game three in Seattle.
If these guys want to see that again, to feel the warm sun on their faces in front of 45,000 on one of Seattle’s pristine early-autumn afternoons, they can say a lot about it in the coming 21 days.
Does this core have Mariners Hall of Famers up and down the roster? Are Julio Rodríguez and Cal Raleigh the franchise cornerstones who will indeed take the Seattle Mariners to places they’ve never been?
It won’t all be decided before that future Tuesday afternoon clinging to Jeff Passan push notifications, absolutely not. It won’t even in 2025.
But every year counts. Development isn’t linear for players and it’s every bit as chaotic for full teams and clubhouses.
Last year already served up the pain of having your toe just slip off the edge of a stair and having your shin smack right into very the step you missed. Nobody wants to do that again.
It’s time to decide who’s going to be here. And what this is going to look like for who’s left.
The trade deadline is the biggest checkpoint in the baseball season. Between then and the winter, that’s your club.
What do these guys want that to look like when we get there? What do they want to be playing for in August, September and, gulp, October?
And how much do they want it?
We’re going to find out.