What we’re watching when we’re watching Colt Emerson at spring training
You can’t learn much from practice games but here’s what’s worth keeping an eye on.
I hope everyone who’s a fan now understands that spring training didn’t always used to be like this. Like, for a bit now the Mariners enter spring training in a spot where we expect them to make the playoffs.
Now here in 2026, we not only expect them to play into October but it would be an absolute disaster if they failed to do so. And the roster matches, for the most part, the team’s ambitions.
You haven’t really lived if you’ve never entered spring training hoping for a Justin Smoak breakout to make your team only respectable. One time, a 36-year-old Mike Sweeney played his way onto a roster that already had a 400-year-old Ken Griffey Jr. on it.
Now the Mariners have a consensus top-15 overall prospect who’s 50/50 at best to make the Opening Day roster in part because the team doesn’t need him quite yet.
Hello, Colt Emerson—the most interesting player in camp.
Taken 22nd overall in the 2023 MLB Draft, Emerson very quickly established himself as not only one of the best players in that class but all of the prospect world.
He now tops out at #4 for Keith Law and The Athletic—this after posting a .285/.383/.458 and 129 wRC+ campaign across three levels, finishing up in Triple-A Tacoma and then the Postseason taxi squad.
And he doesn’t turn 21 until the end of July.
Here’s what we’re watching as he makes his bid for the Opening Day roster.
Can he continue to elevate with authority?
I can’t say for sure I’ve read all or even most of what’s been written on the kid but, to me, Aram Leighton over at Just Baseball has the definitive article on Colt Emerson.
I’ll borrow a couple gifs but you should read the whole piece, which explains a slight swing change led to a big difference in Emerson’s ability to not only sting the baseball but (oohwee) put it in the air.
Through the early part of the season, June 14th to be exact, Emerson had a longer stride and bit of a leg kick.
Here’s some of Leighton’s analysis:
He had a tendency to drift onto his side, causing barrel drag and making it difficult to cover the top of the zone…With the barrel lagging behind his body, it causes the path to often be flatter even when he is barreling balls, sapping his game power.
Starting on June 13th, Emerson ditched the leg kick in favor of a toe tap that has appeared to help him hold his back side more effectively. With his body not crashing forward prior to his swing, it is easier for him to create more barrel depth.
The results don’t lie.
Unsurprisingly, the swing looks about the same now down in Peoria. Both Ryan Divish and Daniel Kramer posted clips from recent BP sessions.
Here’s a swing from Divish’s:
I should’ve said this waaaaaaay earlier in the piece but everything you see at spring training means very little. Practice, games, whatever—it just doesn’t hold a lot of predictability.
That said, if we’re looking for anything we’re looking for skills. Is a player capable of doing something we’d like them to do?
With Emerson, it’s hitting the ball hard in the air. Is he truly the version of himself we saw at the end of 2025?
Spring training cannot do a whole lot to confirm that, but this is what we’re watching—because what we saw at the end of last season looked a lot like a Major Leaguer.
How (and where) is the defense?
The Mariners’ best prospect is a shortstop. And right now, shortstop is manned by a veteran on the last year of his contract.
This is an awkward situation that’s only going to get more awkward as time goes on.
But let’s start with the Emerson side of this first.
This quote from Jerry Dipoto has been bouncing around socials since it was shared in a piece by Daniel Kramer.
“When we drafted Colt, our expectation was that he would grow into a bigger body and eventually playing himself off of shortstop,” said Jerry Dipoto, Mariners president of baseball operations. “We don't think that's the case at all. He’s refined his body and became an even better shortstop.”
FanGraphs’ Top 100 list—with breakdowns from Eric Longenhagen, Brendan Gawlowski and James Fegan—has an excellent write up on where Emerson’s defense stands now heading into 2026:
Defensively the arrow is up. Fully healthy from the fractured foot that sidelined him during the summer of 2024, Emerson looked much more spry at shortstop in 2025. His range was better, but he’d also progressed on some of the little things, like his footwork around the bag, getting the ball out quicker, and charging more aggressively. His ability to grow in real time is remarkable. More than once, Brendan saw him either misplay something or take an imperfect angle in a game on Tuesday, and then handle the same ball perfectly three days later. It’s this as much as anything driving the defensive projection. We’ve long been skeptical that Emerson would be able to stay at short with his size and speed, and still think there’s a good chance he needs to move to third base at some point, but for now it looks like he can be average or maybe even a tick better there.
Now the awkward part.
You’re not going to like hearing this because it sucks to hear: the advanced metrics say J.P. Crawford is one of the worst defensive shortstops in baseball. At least he was in 2025.
Among 33 shortstops with at least 500 defensive innings at the position, Crawford ranked:
22nd in the the more old school Defensive Runs Saved
Would the Mariners dare to be a bit proactive here, almost certainly improving their run prevention unit by sliding J.P. elsewhere and giving Colt Emerson the starting shortstop job in 2026—starting as soon as Opening Day?
It’s so tough to see given the softer side to roster-building but it’s difficult not to wonder if it’d be best for all parties. Crawford bolsters his versatility before free agency by playing third (where quick hands are more important than range) and, should the kid kick down the door Julio-style, the Mariners get better overall with Emerson at short and Brendan Donovan at his most natural position in the keystone.
It’s relatively unlikely without an injury. It’s extremely unliklely before Opening Day.
But you just never know.
And that’s why it’ll be interesting to see just how good Emerson’s defense looks under the microscope there in Peoria. We’ll see the games but coaches and execs see even more.
And on the games, it’ll be most interesting to see where the M’s choose to deploy Colt.
A lot of times, especially in the early going, there’s a bit of an A-team and a B-team, with the most established veterans considerably more likely to stay home when the team heads elsewhere in the Phoenix Valley for Cactus League play.
Do the Mariners run Emerson out as the ‘starting’ shortstop on the team that doesn’t have Crawford? How does it change as camp progresses? Does he get more time at third? Do we see him at second as much or more than Cole Young?
Would we ever see Crawford play another position as soon as the Cactus League?
I doubt it. But we’ve got a month and a half of fake baseball on tap and we have to talk about something.
We could do a lot worse than another potential franchise cornerstone trying to battle his way on to the Opening Day roster.
Go M’s.